DRAM market conditions are gradually warming up [electronic equipment China Trends]

13 Jul 2019

In response to the market conditions of the storage in the second half of 2019, Li Peijun, general manager of South Asia Branch, pointed out that although the demand growth, the price decline and the peak season effect contribute to the positive development of the market, the changes in the inventory of the three major electronic equipment China factories and market demand and other factors It will still affect the overall market changes in the future, and the proportion of market conditions can be positively developed.

As for the trade dispute between Japan and South Korea, because Japan's raw materials for Korean control are extremely critical in the electronic equipment China semiconductor manufacturing process, and there is almost no replacement plan, the development in the next few weeks will be the key to the development of the event.

Li Peiyu pointed out that for the market conditions of the memory in the second half of 2019, because the overall economy is still uncertain, and the inventory of the client has been reduced, but the supplier inventory is still high, what will happen? to be observed.

However, Li Peiying expects that in the third quarter of 2019, due to the peak season of various application market blocks, DRAM supply and demand will gradually stabilize, and the price decline will be reduced. In addition, the demand for cloud electronic equipment China servers will increase in the second half of the year, and new models will be introduced, and CPU supply will increase, making standard DRAMs With the increase in supply and the preparation of consumer DRAM during the peak season, it is expected that the situation in the third quarter will be better than the second season.

Li Peiyu stressed that at present, in terms of supply side, as major suppliers continue to reduce capital expenditures and adjust inventory, in terms of demand, mobile phone manufacturers will launch new machines in the second half of the year, and the average DRAM capacity will continue to increase.

The 5G mobile phone is imported from high-end models, and the main load is 8GB, which continues to drive DRAM demand. The server product is the cloud industry's inventory declining quarter by season, it is expected that the demand will pick up in the third quarter, so that the long-term electronic equipment China will continue to grow steadily, and mainly for enterprises to use cloud services, coupled with the development of AI and network industry can continue to drive the server demand.

In addition, the PC part is in the third quarter of 2019, the CPU resumes normal supply, and major brands introduce new models. Consumer electronics terminal products in the set-top box, smart speakers, SSD, IPCAM and other applications of the DRAM capacity growth throughout the year, will make the demand for DRAM continue to increase steadily. Therefore, in view of such development, it is estimated that the overall demand will increase in the third quarter of 2019, and the inventory will gradually digest, the contract price will continue to fall, but the decline will shrink, and the spot price will have the opportunity to rebound first.

As for the Japanese export of South Korea’s high-tech raw materials, which may cause a trade war between the two countries, Li Peijun also pointed out that because Japan controls the export of three high-tech raw materials from South Korea, it is a relatively important raw material in the relevant electronic equipment China process, and there is almost no Alternatives can be replaced, and even if alternatives are found, they must be tested for a long time before they can be used further.

Moreover, in the case of Japanese-controlled photoresists, depending on the state of preservation, the shelf life is about 6 to 12 weeks, and consultation between the two countries becomes very important in a short period of time. How the future will develop will depend on the outcome of the consultations. In the South Asian branch, there are already customers who have asked for DRAM filings, but there is no official electronic equipment China action to pull the goods.

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